Five Hundred Words > Home ( DNN 4.3.5 ) - Obama will Lose in a Landslide

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Posted by: Tim McNabb	8/18/2008 12:00 AM
Senator Obama will lose the election. He will lose the election in a brutal, pants-down spanking landslide that will take the establishment media utterly by surprise. Why, you ask? Primarily because there are not enough guilty white liberals (GWLs) to get him elected. Obama plays well to GWLs, his key constituency during his caucus triumphs. Caucuses make people come right out and say who they are going to support, and are decided by fewer people than straight-out primaries which are decided in the privacy of the voting booth. GWLs gravitate to public decisions and public pronouncements that reflect the maximum amount of Liberal Virtue upon them. In this election, a GWL talking to a pollster or presenting themselves at a caucus was inexorably drawn to Obama as The Most Enlightened Choice. When choosing between White Woman and Black Dude, the GWL cannot help themselves. Fortunately for McCain, GWLs are a tiny sliver of the populace. Most Non-GWLs are sick of seeing everything refracted through the prism of identity politics. I know I am. Every day I observe men and women being decent, hardworking and pleasant. The only reliable corollary I see is that people of good character succeed and are accepted, and those of low character get in trouble. I am not so naive as to think we are in a post-racial utopia - I know that it is easier for a white guy to get ahead than my African-American counterpart. That said, I don't believe the arguments that the problems that plague the black community are soluble by any action white guys like me can take beyond simply judging a man by the content of his character. GWLs fail to look at Barack Obama as anything other than The First Black Candidate of a Major Party. While being the first black man across that particular finish line is a laudable achievement, Obama was not carried there by the strength of his wisdom, experience and skill. Those not afflicted with this cognitive malady will see him just as a candidate. Obama is by any objective measure woefully unqualified for the most important job in the world. Frankly, I don't think anyone is particularly qualified, but certainly not someone who a few years ago was a State Senator and "Community Organizer". Most folks who live and work in the real world are unimpressed by Harvard degrees that are not backed up by some sort of "honest job" experience. Experience and achievement are what an employer is looking for on a resume, and Obama's is strictly entry-level. We are looking for a chief executive officer of a ginormous corporation. Most of the people from whom Obama needs something north of 50% to pull the lever for him are able to discern the vast expanses of emptiness on his resume. They are not clouded by guilt. They may not be enthused about McCain, but Obama simply isn't a choice a grown-up will make.
Copyright ©2008 Tim McNabb
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Re: Obama will Lose in a Landslide

By Jeff on 8/22/2008 11:20 PM

Well said, in the official space allowed. But I think it's important to do a little bit of electoral math here and point out that Obama may, in fact, carry large pockets of voters across the fruited plain... just not enough to carry the states and their electoral votes.

Scott Rasmussen (the most accurate pollster out there) shows Obama leading in the Electoral College by a comfortable margin -- this despite a literal dead heat in the daily tracking polls. But even those surveys (www.rasmussenreports.com) have a blind spot. And you've hit that spot on the head. GWLs can't bring themselves to admit to the pleasant voice on the other end of the telephone that they're not really going to vote for Obama.

Check out today's "balance of power" calculator at http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/election_2008_electoral_college_update

It demonstrates exactly what you're saying... sort of. Looking at the electoral college today, it shows Virginia -- an adamant red state if ever there were -- as a toss-up. No way. That's all hype on Tim Kaine being on the Veep list. Look at the same polls two weeks ago, and you'll see even more typically red states showing up in the "leans blue" columns. On the eve of the DNC group hug in Denver, the balance of power only tips to Obama by 10 -- easily corrected by Virginia, by the way.

By the way, there are several states showing in this poll as "leaning blue" or better that will go red before the dust settles, most notably Michigan and Pennsylvania. The Rust Belt may trend Democratic, but those folks simply will not pick a president who promises to kill any chances for their prosperity. (Yes, it's still the economy, stupid.)

Re: Obama will Lose in a Landslide	By Jay Kelley on 10/14/2008 7:27 PM
Obama will win. Sorry guys, you're just telling yourselves what you want to hear/believe. McCain's campaign is coming apart at the seams. He's run this entire thing soley for the purpose of winning, not being the best person or choosing the best people for the job. His message is all over the map. You can tell me how wrong I am in three weeks Jay

Re: Obama will Lose in a Landslide	By Jim Tudor on 11/5/2008 7:12 PM
Ooops? Win some, lose some, eh? Sigh...

Re: Obama will Lose in a Landslide	By Wil on 11/11/2008 10:11 PM
hahaha, I also predicted a landslide election....of course, I actually had the right guy winning. Must have sounded good to you when you wrote it.

Re: Obama will Lose in a Landslide	By Tim McNabb on 11/12/2008 5:08 PM
Wish I could say I was right, but I am not. Wah Wah, Wahhhh

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